Katrina: The warnings were there

During the 11th September 2001 attacks on New York and Washington, DC are reasonably not provided until after the fact, despite the existence of credible intelligence, the devastation that a major hurricane like Katrina in New Orleans could cause was unknown. With better planning, enhanced building codes, building code training and enforcement of an organized evacuation plan and adequate funding for levee repairs and reinforcements, the New Orleans loss (at least 31 billion U.S. dollars) andNumber of deaths (1577) could have been lower. In some ways New Orleans was fortunate that Katrina turned slightly spare the city a direct hit and had just weakened before making landfall.

Although there can be no certainty as to how much damage could have been avoided, the existence and activation of a cohesive mandatory evacuation plan for Hurricane Katrina, at the time a dangerous storm of Category 5, was could to have the city reduced the loss of life. Insteadshould be mandatory evacuations were not out when they would be carried out.

Shortly before Katrina's arrival on 29 August 2005 has been a mandatory evacuation use all available transportation (eg buses, taxis and cars yet) ordered, although it had an early warning because the National Hurricane Center (NHC) and National Weather Service (NWS) had to issue two bulletins clear days before the hurricane. Instead, residents were given the optionLeave to remain in their homes at their own risk or protection within the city in insecure areas, especially the New Orleans Convention Center and the Superdome. Neither was immune from potential destruction was forewarned.

To make matters worse, rescuers have to go slow (even forewarned), since the resources are not used came closer to the city as Katrina approached, in preparation for search, rescue and relief operations, which would be needed in their consequences. As a result,It took four days before the much-needed necessities (eg food, water, clothes and medicines) and staff began arriving. had beaten five days after Katrina, with winds of 135-145 km / h, people were still stranded on rooftops. Accordingly, more lives have been directly because the initial relief efforts were lost inefficient and disorganized. At the same time taken anarchy and chaos of the city.

When is explained at a press conference, Homeland Security Chief Michael Chertoff,"... Planners had anticipated that water would rise above the levees with Lake Pontchartrain, but that the levees would not be broken. We have not merely the overflow. We actually had the break in the wall. And I'll tell you really that perfect storm of combination of catastrophes exceeded the foresight of the planners and maybe someone's foresight. "He added:" Nature was not helpful "in terms of the sufficient warning in [1].

Actually, there wasmany warnings. Below are the bulletins from the National Hurricane Center (NHC) and National Weather Service (NWS) issued and some graphic detail about the potential for severe flooding, damage and loss of life:

Hurricane Katrina ADVISORY FILE NUMBER 17
NWS TPC / National Hurricane Center Miami FL
10 clock CDT Sat 27 August 2005

... Category three KATRINA westward in the southeastern Gulf of Mexico ... Expected west-northwest direction and TURNSTRENGTHS ...

At 10 clock CDT ... 1500Z ... A Hurricane Watch for the duration of the southeastern Louisiana coast from Morgan City EAST to the mouth of the Pearl River ... including metropolitan New Orleans and Lake Ponchartrain. A Hurricane Watch means that conditions are possible within the HURRICANE WATCH area ... usually within 36 hours.

Hurricane Katrina ADVISORY No. 21
NWS TPC / National Hurricane Center Miami FL
4 clock CDT Sun 28th August 2005

... DANGEROUSCategory four Hurricane Katrina CONTINUED west-northwest to north but is expected TURN ... ... New tropical storm warnings issued for northern Gulf Coast ...

A hurricane warning is in force, for The North Central Gulf Coast from Morgan City LOUISIANA eastward to the Alabama / FLORIDA border ... including the City of New Orleans and Lake Pontchartrain. A hurricane warning means that conditions within the warning area HURRICANE be expected within the next 24 hours. Preparations ToProtect life and property be rushed to completion.

BULLETIN
Hurricane Katrina ADVISORY No. 23
NWS TPC / National Hurricane Center Miami FL
10 clock CDT Sun 28th August 2005

... Potentially catastrophic Hurricane Katrina, even more ... ... For the Northern Gulf Coast AHEAD ...

A hurricane warning is in force, for The North Central Gulf Coast from Morgan City LOUISIANA eastward to the Alabama / FLORIDA border ... including the City of New OrleansAnd Lake Pontchartrain.

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1011 AM CDT Sun 28th August 2005

... Devastating damage expected ...

Hurricane Katrina ... A most powerful hurricane with unprecedented strength ... rival the intensity of Hurricane Camille 1969th

The majority of the area is for weeks ... perhaps longer inhabitable. At least half of well constructed houses have roof and wall FAILURE. ALL WILL gable roofsFAIL ... HOMES from these severely damaged or destroyed.

Most industrial buildings will be WILL NOT functional. Preference for wall and roof failure is expected to investigate. ALL LOW RISING wood frame apartment buildings are destroyed. CONCRETE BLOCK Low Rise APARTMENTS WILL major damage ... maintain including some wall and roof FAILURE.

HIGH RISE office and apartment buildings in dangerous SWAY ... A FEW to total collapse. All windows are BLOWOUT.

AIRBORNE DEBRIS will be widespread ... And may heavy items like household appliances and even light vehicles included. Sport utility vehicles and light trucks will be moved. THE blown debris will create additional destruction. People ... ... ANIMALS AND ANIMAL will be exposed to the winds faced certain death IF Struck.

WILL blackouts last for weeks ... AS MOST power poles down and TRANSFORMERS will be destroyed. MAKE human suffering water shortages will Incredible by MODERNStandards.

The vast majority of Native trees will be uprooted or made. ONLY stop the warmest ... But quite DEFOLIATION BE. A few plants remain. LIVESTOCK left to be killed to be exposed to the winds.

A HURRICANE domestic wind warning is issued when sustained winds NEAR hurricane strength ... or frequent gusts at or above hurricane force ... sure within the next 12 to 24 hours.

ONCE Tropical storm and hurricane wind speeds ONSET ... do not venture outside!

Hurricane Katrina ADVISORY NUMBER 24
NWS TPC / National Hurricane Center Miami FL
4 PM CDT Sun 28th August 2005

... Potentially catastrophic hurricane "Katrina" for the north of the Gulf Coast AHEAD ...

A hurricane warning is in force, for The North Central Gulf Coast from Morgan City LOUISIANA eastward to the Alabama / FLORIDA border ... including the City of New Orleans and Lake Pontchartrain. Preparations To Protect life, property and is still in the BEEVENING.

It should be noted that the National Hurricane Center (NHC) is a "catastrophic hurricane" in the following manner to be described:

"Storm surge generally greater than 18 feet above normal. Complete roof failure on many homes and industrial buildings. Some buildings completely blown with small errors commercial buildings over or removed. All shrubs, trees and signs blown away. Complete destruction of mobile homes. Severe and extensive window and doors are damaged. Low-lyingEscape routes are by rising water 3-5 hours before the arrival of the center cut of the hurricane. Major damage to lower floors of all structures located less than 15 ft above sea level and within 500 meters of coastline. Massive evacuation of residential areas on low ground within 5-10 miles (8-16 km) of the shoreline may be required. "

However, this did not face the only warnings of the threat to New Orleans by a major hurricane, and the catastrophic damage of the Category 4 or 5 stormwould cause.

Already in November 2004 to New Orleans a close call with Hurricane Ivan, another strong storm that natural hazards had asked averted Observer: "What if Hurricane Ivan had not missed New Orleans?" The answer was startling and precise:

"Hurricane Ivan would have:

Pushed a 17-foot storm surge into Lake Pontchartrain;

to drive the fault of the levees between the lake and the city and fill the city "bowl" with water from lake levee to river levee, in someSet as deep as 20 feet;

Flooded the north shore of Lake Pontchartrain push suburbs with water as much as seven miles inland and flooded inhabited areas south of the Mississippi River. Up to 80 percent of the structures in these flooded areas would be severely damaged by wind and water have been. The potential for such extensive flooding and resulting damage is the result of a levee system that is not keeping pace with the growing flood of threats is a rapidly erodedCoast and thus fails to protect the landscape fades away forever. "[2]

As a result, flooded by Katrina, 80% of New Orleans was under water and, the city had no power for weeks and much of the area remained for three months or more uninhabitable. Again the Natural Hazards Observer on the mark:

"... It is estimated that it would take, nine weeks to pump the water out of the city, and only then could assessments begin to determine what buildings were habitable orsalvageable. Sewer, water, and forced drainage pumping systems would be the extensive damage. The national authorities were scrambling to build tent cities to return the hundreds of thousands of refugees to their homes not home and no further shift options. Following such a disaster, New Orleans would be dramatically different, and probably much less what it is today ...

... Regional and national rescue resources would have to respond as quickly asand possible augmentation by local private vessels would be required (to require some survived). And also with such assistance, federal and state estimated that it would take 10 days to rescue all those stranded in the city. No shelters in the city would be without risk from rising water, "[3] The Natural Hazards Observer reported in 2004 reinforced the need to evacuate everyone from the city. And with the statement that" shelters "in the city would not bebe safe from flooding, it made little sense to threaten people in the Superdome and Convention Center.

The first National Hurricane Center (NHC) and National Weather Service (NWS) warnings from two full days before Katrina, it is possible that an organized evacuation could take advantage of all available vehicle removed the vast majority of people have before the arrival of the hurricane.

If an evacuation during Ivan threat made around 600,000 people (50% of theThe city's population fled), in their own vehicles from September 13-15, according to The Natural Hazards Observer, if "was implemented way traffic" (the use of all the trains to flow out of the city). It took almost 11 hours for people who typically make up to 1 ½ hours drive to the northwest and Baton Rouge show that despite excessive deficits and the "oncoming traffic", a nearly complete evacuation with efficient use of all available was possibleVehicles.

The closing of the Natural Hazards Observer's 2004 report:

"Should this disaster become a reality, it would certainly be one of the greatest disasters, if not the largest, the United States made to the estimated cost of more than 100 billion dollars (a total of Hurricane Katrina caused" damage at 75 billion U.S. dollars). After to the American Red Cross, such an event could not bear even more devastating than a major earthquake in California. survivors would ConditionsDisaster experienced before in a North American. "[4]

Second, the possibility that levee failures could occur from a powerful storm, was also known. "According to the Times-Picayune ... Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) Director Joe Allbaugh ordered a sophisticated computer simulation of what would happen if a Category 5 storm hit New Orleans [2002]. Suhayda Joseph, an engineer at Louisiana State University who worked on the project, described ... What could ...: Happen ... fail one part of the levee would. It is not something that is expected. But erosion occurs, and as levees broke, the break will get wider and wider. The water will flow through the city and only stop when it reaches the next higher thing. The continuous barrier is the south levee, along the River. That's 25 meters high, so you see the water pile up on the river levee. "[5]

Third, before the 9 / 11 attacks a Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) report"The three most likely catastrophic disasters detailed, the U.S. could happen in this: a terrorist attack in New York, a strong earthquake in San Francisco, and a hurricane strike in New Orleans." [6] The assessment was because of this that a hurricane Simulation was held in 2002 in order to determine what would happen "when a storm of category 5 hit, [and], if the exercise was completed evidence that we would lose a lot of people. We changed the name the [simulated]Storm from Delaney to KYAGB ... kiss your ass goodbye ... because everyone who was here as that category five storm hit ... had gone, "Walter Maestri, emergency coordinator of Jefferson Parish in New Orleans reported [7].

Fourth knew, federal, state and local officials as far back as the late 1960s that New Orleans was very vulnerable. But after the Army Corps of Engineers more than 430 million U.S. dollars spent by 1995-2005 (inspired after six died in a big rain storm in May1995) was significant at the Southeast Louisiana Urban Flood Control Project (SELA) in order to strengthen the levees and pumping stations, at least 250 million U.S. dollars of critical projects remained in funding for SELA is reduced by the decline in revenue from federal tax cuts and high cost of the Iraq war and domestic security.

The Times-Picayune wrote on 18 June 2004: "The system is in great shape, but reduced the dikes. Everything is sinking, and if we do not get the money fast enough tolift it, then we can not stay in front of the settlement ... "[8]

Although the federal government back part of the financing, it was insufficient. Ironically, when Hurricane Katrina, the Senate, he had tried some of the SELA funding cuts again in 2006, while the entrepreneurs were in the process of levee repair the 17th Street Canal where the main breach had occurred flooding much of New Orleans.

At the end there were plenty of warnings from the National HurricaneCenter (NHC), National Weather Service (NWS) and the previous studies. If these warnings and the continuing requests for additional funds in support of the City levee defenses had not been ignored a mandatory evacuation was carried out and the rescue and use of resources had been in the vicinity of New Orleans in advance of the expected landfall, the damage in use and loss of life could have mitigated.

____________________________

[1] Eric Lipton and Scott Shane. HomeChief Security Response defended the Federal Republic. The New York Times, 4 September 2005. 26th

[2] Matthew Barge. Bush is for New Orleans Flooding Blame? FactCheck.org. 2 September 2005. 4 September 2005. [Http: / / www.factcheck.org/article.aspx?docID=344]

[3] Matthew Barge. Bush is for New Orleans Flooding Blame? FactCheck.org. 2 September 2005. 4 September 2005. [Http: / / www.factcheck.org/article.aspx?docID=344]

[4] Matthew Barge. Is Bush to blame forFlooding of New Orleans? FactCheck.org. 2 September 2005. 4 September 2005. [Http: / / www.factcheck.org/article.aspx?docID=344]

[5] Will Bunch. Did New Orleans catastrophe have to happen? "Times-Picayune had" repeatedly Raised federal spending issues. Editor & Publisher. 31 August 2005. 4 September 2005. http://www.editorandpublisher.com/eandp/news/article_display.jsp?vnu_content_id=1001051313

[6] Will Bunch. Did New Orleans catastrophe Have toHappen? "Times-Picayune had" repeatedly Raised federal spending issues. Editor & Publisher. 31 August 2005. 4 September 2005. http://www.editorandpublisher.com/eandp/news/article_display.jsp?vnu_content_id=1001051313

[7] Will Bunch. Did New Orleans catastrophe have to happen? "Times-Picayune had" repeatedly Raised federal spending issues. Editor & Publisher. 31 August 2005. 4 September 2005.http://www.editorandpublisher.com/eandp/news/article_display.jsp?vnu_content_id=1001051313

[8] Will Bunch. Did New Orleans catastrophe have to happen? "Times-Picayune had" repeatedly Raised federal spending issues. Editor & Publisher. 31 August 2005. 4 September 2005. http://www.editorandpublisher.com/eandp/news/article_display.jsp?vnu_content_id=1001051313

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